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3. But, alas what are we at. The affordability index might shed some light on this… but I think there’s also something to be learned from looking at correlations (inverse correlations, I guess) between interest rates and home prices in Seattle, proper, since ’92. 1) There is NO correlation between job creation or population growth and housing prices. Seattle Washington Residential Rent and Rental Statistics. SEATTLE - Home prices in the Seattle metro area fell last month, according to a new report released Monday. America used to be #1, we’ve plummetted to #7 in technology innovation. This graph depicts the average ticket price for Seattle Seahawks games in the National Football League from 2006 to 2019. The indices are calculated from data on repeat sales of single-family homes, an approach developed by economists Case, Shiller and Allan Weiss who served as the CEO [of 'Case Shiller Weiss'] from that company's 1991 inception until its sale to Fiserv in 2002. New monthly data shows the median price of a single-family home in Seattle -- $760,000 -- is exactly the same as it was one year ago. If you controlled for factors, like land restrictions, home structure growth, income growth in the HOME BUYING CLASS, then you would see a much clearer relationship. The following data are for new, single-family houses only. United States Housing Market. In fact, the national median home price has not declined since the Great Depression of the 1930s. In my opinion the doubling between 200,000 and 400,000 is way over represented, and it makes the doubling in price between 100,000 and 200,000 look smaller. 1y 3y 5y. Thanks for your honest opinion and reality in what is going on.I have owned homes in the past and it was simple and you worked for what you had.People changed and were looking for a jackpot in a short amount of time so with what is going on with the reality with over living and the motgage being due,life is changing for some people and you saw the change awhile ago and it is happening I think the same reality as a person who understands.Thanks for the reality bite of truth. This is especially apparent when one looks at the inflation adjusted Case-Shiller data starting in I believe 1890, and remaining essentially flat until the 1980’s when it heads for the sky. 5. The significant down turns that were mentioned were associated with significant economic issues. Here's the link: King County Home Prices 1946-2007 Seattle Bubble And here's the first line: […]. Seattle property is falling at a rate of 16% annualized on a $/sq foot right now (7.5% off peak in < 6 months). If you annualize those months, you get disasterous looking statistics. This will effectively lower interest rates. However, I have to agree that the past may be of very limited use in predicting future events at this time. After doing some digging I discovered that the UW Special Collections has a complete set of the reports going all the way back to the beginning. Also, with respect to #6 above, even if the Fed cuts rates, that may not impact the rates which mortgages go at. In general home prices in the US are about three times annual household income levels. Don’t bother citing Tim’s employment study because it is majorly flawed. Today with more risky loans it may only take a mild recession to put a significant number of people into foreclosure. I wanted to do the research to find out whether or not Mr. Tytler’s claims hold water, and to improve upon the Seattle Times graph, but with reliable home price data from the NWMLS only going back to 1993, I was in a bit of a jam. because they have the least amount of equity). Sales of Existing Single Family Homes (percent changes only) Median Prices of Existing Single Family Homes. 4. There wasn’t a shortage of land from 1945-70. […] between the attitude in Seattle in 2006 and the attitude in Australia at present. What happened in the 1970-1985 period? IMHO, I strongly suspect that the previous peaks and valleys have very little predictive value. Prices jump up, flatten out, jump up again, flat out, and so on. Home prices nationwide were up 14.2% year-over-year in October. Tim also hosts the weekly improv comedy sci-fi podcast Dispatches from the Multiverse. So, here it […], […] King County Home Prices: 1946-2007 […]. Obviously it’s not linear, but when people at the bottom are losing their tails by selling, they can’t really afford to buy the next level up unless those prices also come down. We have never seen competition like this. The inflation measurements are starting to reflect the rate cuts earlier this year. Tim, this blog is now officially better than anything I’ve seen in the Seattle media on real estate. I am sure many people put down less than 20% so it will require even less time. Notice also how the abrupt end of the spike coincides with the easy lending spigot being turned off. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080219/bs_ft/fto021920081334359078;_ylt=AozoX8V3CwKFRV6c_RfR1f0E1vAI. 1979-85 Interest rates were above 11% topping out at 15+% and there was a recession. “If you have an EECS degree, earning $60k right out of college is pretty much the norm. Believe it or not, I think we will see another housing boom within the next 10 years, I just can’t be sure exactly when it will start. Median home price in Washington 1996 - 2019 Year Median 2019 $397,900 2018 $362,100 2017 $348,900 2016 $315,900 2015 $289,100 2014 $267,600 2013 $253,800 2012 $236,600 2011 $223,900 2010 $246,300 2009 $250,400 2008 $284,400 2007 $309,600 2006 $293,800 2005 $260,900 2004 $225,000 2003 $203,800 2002 $188,500 2001 $179,900 2000 $176,300 1999 $166,600 The median home price … When a home-owner without equity runs into any trouble, they can’t just sell or re-finance, and the only option is foreclosure. That’s your new limit. Talk about unintended consequences. 1y 3y 5y. For example, is there a much higher percentage of loans which are 100% finance, negative amortization, or Option ARM today than in the past?
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